Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.91 – 263.82

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473 ±18

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 102.37Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 126.89Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 129.65Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.7 ±13.3

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 62.98Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 103.86Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 96.98Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6986, 11019, 8810

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 11019, 8810

Auto

59.7 17%

Teleop

199.7 56%

Endgame

97.1 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 6487, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 6487, 5823

Auto

42.7 17%

Teleop

142.4 58%

Endgame

61.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score358.9pts

Blue projected score263.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.1
Score range: 226–397
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 209.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473Season APEX450.7

59.7Auto42.7

199.7Teleop142.4

97.1Endgame61.7

17Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	23
teleop	186	139
endgame	62	73
foul	35	15
total	344	250

Result

Final score

344 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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