Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.54 – 162.68

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 101.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.2 ±20.7

10214Team Doritos

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -Rank 48Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8015The Cheetahs

Provisional

Season APEX 105.9Event APEX 46.86Rank 27Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 58.29Rank 2Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±20

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 28.29Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5522Stargazer

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 106Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10214, 8015, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10214, 8015, 6941

Auto

28.8 23%

Teleop

68.8 54%

Endgame

30.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 7738, 5522

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 7738, 5522

Auto

39.1 24%

Teleop

96.5 59%

Endgame

27.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.5pts

Blue projected score162.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 103–194
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 170.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.2Season APEX255.3

20.3Auto30.6

54.6Teleop82.3

24.6Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	12
teleop	129	21
endgame	37	19
foul	0	0
total	226	52

Result

Final score

226 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 101.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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