Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.71 – 85.71

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±23.7

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX -Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX -Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11256Satellites

Provisional

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX -Rank 37Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.4 ±17.6

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX -Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX -Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX -Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10541, 11319, 11256

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10541, 11319, 11256

Auto

25.7 30%

Teleop

42.9 50%

Endgame

17.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8806, 5823, 10558

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 5823, 10558

Auto

25.7 30%

Teleop

42.9 50%

Endgame

17.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.7pts

Blue projected score85.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 55–117
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.9Season APEX328.4

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	27
teleop	114	33
endgame	73	17
foul	5	5
total	243	82

Result

Final score

243 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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