Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.21 – 91.21

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 94.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±22

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX -Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX -Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±17.2

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX -Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11288Trident Force

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -Rank 40Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -Rank 46Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5449, 10000, 6706

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5449, 10000, 6706

Auto

27.4 30%

Teleop

45.6 50%

Endgame

18.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 11288, 5515

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 11288, 5515

Auto

27.4 30%

Teleop

45.6 50%

Endgame

18.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score91.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 58–124
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.9Season APEX412

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	7
teleop	134	3
endgame	35	1
foul	0	0
total	200	11

Result

Final score

200 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 94.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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