Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.62 – 153.59

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±20.5

5522Stargazer

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 31.7Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 60.76Rank 45Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5516Iron Maple

Provisional

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 37.16Rank 26Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.6 ±19.5

10016Absolute Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 110Event APEX 14.91Rank 34Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 48.16Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 90.52Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5522, 10120, 5516

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5522, 10120, 5516

Auto

11.6 9%

Teleop

71.8 53%

Endgame

53.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10016, 10526, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10016, 10526, 5823

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

74.0 50%

Endgame

53.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.6pts

Blue projected score153.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24
Score range: 96–188
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX353.6

11.6Auto20.9

71.8Teleop74

53Endgame53.7

44Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	75	102
endgame	8	29
foul	0	0
total	111	156

Result

Final score

111 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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