Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.74 – 176.44

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.1 ±12.8

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 65.31Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 85.55Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 117.88Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.2 ±23.1

10214Team Doritos

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 7.1Rank 48Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 118.82Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX 50.52Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10711, 11118, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 11118, 11019

Auto

31.2 12%

Teleop

159.2 61%

Endgame

71.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10214, 10541, 6494

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10214, 10541, 6494

Auto

47.4 28%

Teleop

76.6 45%

Endgame

45.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score268.7pts

Blue projected score176.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.3
Score range: 142–303
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.1Season APEX332.2

31.2Auto47.4

159.2Teleop76.6

71.5Endgame45.7

59Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	143	52
endgame	58	23
foul	10	30
total	250	130

Result

Final score

250 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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