Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.43 – 38.62

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±24.2

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -14.33Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7002风云蹦豆

Provisional

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 46.63Rank 24Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX 14.13Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±23.2

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 73.51Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -17.3Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7601Shenzhen Unity Stallion

Provisional

Season APEX 91.2Event APEX -17.59Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7738, 7002, 10558

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7738, 7002, 10558

Auto

14.4 44%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

23.3 71%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6986, 10000, 7601

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 10000, 7601

Auto

11.0 30%

Teleop

5.8 16%

Endgame

19.5 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.4pts

Blue projected score38.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.8
Score range: 5–80
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX319.6

14.4Auto11

-5Teleop5.8

23.3Endgame19.5

78Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	46
teleop	5	90
endgame	3	60
foul	0	5
total	16	201

Result

Final score

16 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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