Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.06 – 143.71

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.7 ±21.4

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 31.27Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 18.78Rank 46Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -18.99Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±20.7

11256Satellites

Provisional

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX -10.75Rank 37Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 134.8Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6394MITO

Provisional

Season APEX 96Event APEX 19.66Rank 43Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9421, 5515, 11352

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9421, 5515, 11352

Auto

3.5 24%

Teleop

18.3 100%

Endgame

-7.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11256, 6766, 6394

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11256, 6766, 6394

Auto

21.7 15%

Teleop

88.2 61%

Endgame

34.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.6
Score range: -3–178
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 190.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.7Season APEX410.1

3.5Auto21.7

18.3Teleop88.2

-7.5Endgame34.2

68Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	23	149
endgame	16	65
foul	0	15
total	48	243

Result

Final score

48 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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