Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

445.02 – 180.64

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

478 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.3 ±16.5

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 139Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 240.57Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 65.45Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±16.9

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 47.38Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 48.86Rank 22Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 84.4Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9597, 8214, 11328

/ 100 compat

Projected

445 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9597, 8214, 11328

Auto

80.1 19%

Teleop

252.2 58%

Endgame

98.9 23%

Strengths

· 8214 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 6353, 5449

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 6353, 5449

Auto

34.4 19%

Teleop

117.6 64%

Endgame

31.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score445pts

Blue projected score180.6pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 264.4
Score range: 147–479
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 188.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

835.3Season APEX409.6

80.1Auto34.4

252.2Teleop117.6

98.9Endgame31.9

60Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	26
teleop	259	62
endgame	103	15
foul	10	5
total	478	108

Result

Final score

478 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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