Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.15 – 248.27

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±14.4

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 57.66Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 41.08Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 66.41Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.7 ±16.4

5516Iron Maple

Provisional

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 33.63Rank 26Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 181.84Rank 2Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 32.8Rank 25Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8806, 10526, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 10526, 10131

Auto

22.5 14%

Teleop

86.9 52%

Endgame

56.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5516, 6941, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5516, 6941, 10479

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

134.7 57%

Endgame

59.4 25%

Strengths

· 6941 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score248.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.1
Score range: 131–282
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 187.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524Season APEX466.7

22.5Auto41.4

86.9Teleop134.7

56.3Endgame59.4

41Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	52
teleop	81	207
endgame	36	70
foul	0	0
total	125	329

Result

Final score

125 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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