Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.93 – 198.2

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±22.6

11485Bestarian NextGEN

Provisional

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -0.08Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 21.33Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6304EAGLE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 84.68Rank 20Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±17.6

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 71.88Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 46.01Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 80.31Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11485, 6414, 6304

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11485, 6414, 6304

Auto

21.5 24%

Teleop

34.3 39%

Endgame

32.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6487, 11319, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6487, 11319, 5823

Auto

34.0 19%

Teleop

81.1 45%

Endgame

65.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.3
Score range: 72–232
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 187.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.3Season APEX428.9

21.5Auto34

34.3Teleop81.1

32.3Endgame65.1

68Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	46
teleop	60	155
endgame	40	86
foul	0	0
total	127	287

Result

Final score

127 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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