Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.84 – 120.15

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±20

5522Stargazer

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 24.15Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 95.08Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 12.61Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±19.9

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX -1.47Rank 32Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5849Joker

Provisional

Season APEX 123.5Event APEX 18.27Rank 41Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 103.35Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5522, 8011, 6433

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5522, 8011, 6433

Auto

15.2 11%

Teleop

95.3 67%

Endgame

30.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6399, 5849, 6706

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6399, 5849, 6706

Auto

6.5 6%

Teleop

83.4 72%

Endgame

25.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score120.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.7
Score range: 86–166
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.1Season APEX380.7

15.2Auto6.5

95.3Teleop83.4

30.8Endgame25.5

50Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	111	95
endgame	28	51
foul	0	0
total	182	179

Result

Final score

182 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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