Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.16 – 171.24

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±20

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX 45.79Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 123.14Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -12.77Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±19.5

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 106.7Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 16.73Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 47.81Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6494, 11019, 11352

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6494, 11019, 11352

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

92.6 62%

Endgame

31.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8011, 6414, 10526

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8011, 6414, 10526

Auto

34.8 20%

Teleop

100.8 59%

Endgame

34.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score171.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.1
Score range: 116–211
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 220.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX342

25.8Auto34.8

92.6Teleop100.8

31Endgame34.9

46Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	33
teleop	67	122
endgame	14	32
foul	0	0
total	114	187

Result

Final score

114 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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