Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.19 – 157.88

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±20.7

11256Satellites

Provisional

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX -17.55Rank 37Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 111.9Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -15.16Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.2 ±18.5

10016Absolute Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 110Event APEX 19.53Rank 34Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 50.87Rank 22Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 87.48Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11256, 11019, 7738

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11256, 11019, 7738

Auto

7.9 9%

Teleop

50.0 55%

Endgame

32.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10016, 6353, 11118

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10016, 6353, 11118

Auto

22.0 14%

Teleop

78.8 52%

Endgame

51.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score157.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.7
Score range: 45–192
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 187.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.8Season APEX557.2

7.9Auto22

50Teleop78.8

32.6Endgame51.6

79Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	53	88
endgame	31	49
foul	0	0
total	100	154

Result

Final score

100 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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