Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.32 – 266.22

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.4 ±19.7

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 53.78Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 43.03Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 64.51Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.8 ±14.9

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 86.71Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 89.6Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6304EAGLE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 89.91Rank 20Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11328, 9421, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11328, 9421, 8806

Auto

26.0 17%

Teleop

95.7 62%

Endgame

33.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 10131, 6304

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 10131, 6304

Auto

38.3 16%

Teleop

115.3 48%

Endgame

89.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.3pts

Blue projected score266.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.9
Score range: 128–299
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.4Season APEX548.8

26Auto38.3

95.7Teleop115.3

33.1Endgame89

59Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	102	125
endgame	36	43
foul	5	5
total	157	187

Result

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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