Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.56 – 195.7

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.1 ±17.7

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 189.63Rank 2Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 102.93Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7002风云蹦豆

Provisional

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 65Rank 24Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354 ±22

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 53.21Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 105.51Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 36.98Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6941, 6940, 7002

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6941, 6940, 7002

Auto

85.5 26%

Teleop

180.8 55%

Endgame

61.7 19%

Strengths

· 6941 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11319, 6706, 6433

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11319, 6706, 6433

Auto

25.9 15%

Teleop

115.1 66%

Endgame

33.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score357.6pts

Blue projected score195.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.9
Score range: 163–391
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.1Season APEX354

85.5Auto25.9

180.8Teleop115.1

61.7Endgame33.8

23Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	35
teleop	163	81
endgame	75	27
foul	0	5
total	287	148

Result

Final score

287 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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