Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.91 – 72.76

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.4 ±20.7

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 17.55Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 165.42Rank 19Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 50.94Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±22

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 47.04Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5522Stargazer

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 23.25Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10214Team Doritos

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 2.47Rank 48Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10000, 6907, 6414

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10000, 6907, 6414

Auto

50.3 21%

Teleop

158.3 66%

Endgame

32.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10526, 5522, 10214

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10526, 5522, 10214

Auto

17.8 35%

Teleop

21.0 41%

Endgame

11.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233.9pts

Blue projected score72.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.1
Score range: 39–268
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.4Season APEX241.2

50.3Auto17.8

158.3Teleop21

32.4Endgame11.9

119Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	22	46
endgame	0	32
foul	0	0
total	39	95

Result

Final score

39 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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