Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.51 – 165.47

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±20.7

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 83.45Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7601Shenzhen Unity Stallion

Provisional

Season APEX 91.2Event APEX -13.83Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 86.89Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.9 ±20.5

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 11.05Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 10.46Rank 32Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 143.96Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5823, 7601, 5449

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5823, 7601, 5449

Auto

37.3 24%

Teleop

75.4 48%

Endgame

45.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11352, 6399, 8810

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11352, 6399, 8810

Auto

19.4 14%

Teleop

86.4 61%

Endgame

36.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.5pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 123–199
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.2Season APEX349.9

37.3Auto19.4

75.4Teleop86.4

45.7Endgame36.4

85Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	0
teleop	84	51
endgame	44	38
foul	0	0
total	146	89

Result

Final score

146 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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