Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.33 – 226.11

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 139.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±17.6

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 67.94Rank 25Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8015The Cheetahs

Provisional

Season APEX 105.9Event APEX 51.98Rank 27Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 84.41Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±18

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 105.87Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11256Satellites

Provisional

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 13.32Rank 37Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 106.92Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10479, 8015, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10479, 8015, 6487

Auto

24.2 13%

Teleop

124.0 65%

Endgame

43.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 11256, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 11256, 8011

Auto

29.9 13%

Teleop

134.1 58%

Endgame

66.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.3pts

Blue projected score226.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: 170–260
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 190.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.7Season APEX378.8

24.2Auto29.9

124Teleop134.1

43.8Endgame66.7

109Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	18	82
endgame	0	1
foul	5	10
total	41	111

Result

Final score

41 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 139.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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