Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.58 – 54.91

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 134.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.5 ±20.7

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 46.7Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 212.59Rank 2Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10016Absolute Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 110Event APEX 16.29Rank 34Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±22.6

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 84.09Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11288Trident Force

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -41.04Rank 40Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX 11.86Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9421, 6941, 10016

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9421, 6941, 10016

Auto

48.4 19%

Teleop

131.6 51%

Endgame

78.0 30%

Strengths

· 6941 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6986, 11288, 6494

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 11288, 6494

Auto

20.6 29%

Teleop

47.2 66%

Endgame

3.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score275.6pts

Blue projected score54.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.7
Score range: 21–310
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 190.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.5Season APEX337.5

48.4Auto20.6

131.6Teleop47.2

78Endgame3.4

38Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	47
teleop	103	116
endgame	25	73
foul	0	0
total	187	236

Result

Final score

187 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 134.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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