Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.49 – 409.79

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.1 ±18.9

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 78.5Rank 45Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 98.73Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX 4.26Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 805.7 ±11.7

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 104.42Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 218.83Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 86.54Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10120, 6940, 10558

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10120, 6940, 10558

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

101.6 63%

Endgame

29.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11019, 8214, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.8 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 8214, 10131

Auto

63.3 16%

Teleop

238.7 59%

Endgame

102.8 25%

Strengths

· 8214 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score409.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -228.3
Score range: 148–443
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.1Season APEX805.7

29.5Auto63.3

101.6Teleop238.7

29.8Endgame102.8

60Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	56
teleop	103	241
endgame	33	149
foul	0	0
total	207	446

Result

Final score

207 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree