Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.28 – 52.61

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.4 ±19.3

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 100.12Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5516Iron Maple

Provisional

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 14.48Rank 26Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 34.68Rank 22Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.4 ±24.2

6394MITO

Provisional

Season APEX 96Event APEX 4.22Rank 43Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 47.38Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10214Team Doritos

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 1.01Rank 48Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6706, 5516, 6353

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6706, 5516, 6353

Auto

10.9 7%

Teleop

97.4 63%

Endgame

46.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6394, 6414, 10214

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6394, 6414, 10214

Auto

14.0 36%

Teleop

33.0 85%

Endgame

-8.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.3pts

Blue projected score52.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: 18–184
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.4Season APEX211.4

10.9Auto14

97.4Teleop33

46Endgame-8

77Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	15
teleop	130	15
endgame	41	0
foul	0	0
total	210	30

Result

Final score

210 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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