Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.08 – 206.33

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 116.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±20.9

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -5.02Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6304EAGLE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 121.45Rank 20Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 81.65Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.6 ±22.6

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 50.02Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11485Bestarian NextGEN

Provisional

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -8.9Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 165.21Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7738, 6304, 10526

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7738, 6304, 10526

Auto

31.2 18%

Teleop

85.4 50%

Endgame

54.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6433, 11485, 8810

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6433, 11485, 8810

Auto

31.2 16%

Teleop

98.8 50%

Endgame

66.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.1pts

Blue projected score206.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 163–241
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 195.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.4Season APEX324.6

31.2Auto31.2

85.4Teleop98.8

54.5Endgame66.1

63Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	39
teleop	5	35
endgame	41	9
foul	0	15
total	74	98

Result

Final score

74 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 116.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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