Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.52 – 208.02

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.9 ±20.7

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 117.5Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 161.79Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7601Shenzhen Unity Stallion

Provisional

Season APEX 91.2Event APEX 16.23Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.3 ±20.3

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 99.13Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 73.63Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5849Joker

Provisional

Season APEX 123.5Event APEX 35.26Rank 41Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9635, 10541, 7601

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9635, 10541, 7601

Auto

72.8 25%

Teleop

146.9 51%

Endgame

69.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6487, 5449, 5849

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6487, 5449, 5849

Auto

25.9 13%

Teleop

128.7 63%

Endgame

51.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295.5pts

Blue projected score208pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.5
Score range: 173–331
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 195.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.9Season APEX438.3

72.8Auto25.9

146.9Teleop128.7

69.7Endgame51.2

115Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	43
teleop	46	103
endgame	26	26
foul	5	15
total	157	187

Result

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 79.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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