Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.93 – 228.16

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347 ±17.6

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 56.77Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 26.2Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 114.96Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.4 ±11.7

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 67.25Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 18.69Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 142.22Rank 19Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8806, 11352, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 11352, 8011

Auto

30.1 15%

Teleop

103.7 53%

Endgame

61.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11118, 7594, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11118, 7594, 6907

Auto

46.3 20%

Teleop

148.5 65%

Endgame

32.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.9pts

Blue projected score228.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 163–263
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347Season APEX694.4

30.1Auto46.3

103.7Teleop148.5

61.2Endgame32.2

59Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	71
teleop	119	222
endgame	0	47
foul	5	0
total	132	340

Result

Final score

132 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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