Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.46 – 113.06

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±21.7

8015The Cheetahs

Provisional

Season APEX 105.9Event APEX 48.29Rank 27Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 43.48Rank 32Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 50.69Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.3 ±22.6

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX 15.89Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 34.89Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 62.28Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8015, 6399, 11319

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8015, 6399, 11319

Auto

13.8 11%

Teleop

66.4 53%

Endgame

44.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6494, 10000, 11328

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6494, 10000, 11328

Auto

21.8 20%

Teleop

55.2 50%

Endgame

33.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score113.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: 78–177
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 196.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX393.3

13.8Auto21.8

66.4Teleop55.2

44.5Endgame33.4

111Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	36
teleop	28	47
endgame	15	16
foul	0	0
total	55	99

Result

Final score

55 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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