Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.94 – 124.33

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±22.6

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 16.41Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 103.31Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 39.22Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±18.5

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 71.17Rank 45Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 5.9Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 47.26Rank 25Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6414, 6706, 9421

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6414, 6706, 9421

Auto

21.1 13%

Teleop

101.5 65%

Endgame

34.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10120, 7738, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10120, 7738, 10479

Auto

14.8 14%

Teleop

60.3 56%

Endgame

32.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.9pts

Blue projected score124.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 89–194
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 196.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX247.8

21.1Auto14.8

101.5Teleop60.3

34.4Endgame32.7

146Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	120	85
endgame	36	43
foul	10	0
total	198	146

Result

Final score

198 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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