Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.45 – 150.6

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±20.7

6394MITO

Provisional

Season APEX 96Event APEX 3.89Rank 43Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 72.72Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 105.84Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.2 ±20.7

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 115.13Rank 19Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX 9.26Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10016Absolute Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 110Event APEX 26.21Rank 34Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6394, 5449, 10711

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6394, 5449, 10711

Auto

25.1 14%

Teleop

94.4 53%

Endgame

59.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6907, 10558, 10016

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6907, 10558, 10016

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

97.6 67%

Endgame

28.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.5pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 116–217
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 197.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.7Season APEX440.2

25.1Auto19.5

94.4Teleop97.6

59.8Endgame28

157Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	46
teleop	97	139
endgame	22	32
foul	0	10
total	158	227

Result

Final score

158 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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