Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.44 – 107.63

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 103 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±16.4

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 103.66Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 54.43Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -25.65Rank 46Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.2 ±17.6

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 60.52Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 41.38Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7601Shenzhen Unity Stallion

Provisional

Season APEX 91.2Event APEX 5.73Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 6433, 5515

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 6433, 5515

Auto

22.7 17%

Teleop

93.7 70%

Endgame

16.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9597, 8806, 7601

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9597, 8806, 7601

Auto

37.3 32%

Teleop

53.6 46%

Endgame

25.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 73–167
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 196.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX537.2

22.7Auto37.3

93.7Teleop53.6

16.9Endgame25

86Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	36
teleop	131	146
endgame	55	63
foul	0	0
total	201	245

Result

Final score

201 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 103 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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