Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.83 – 79.99

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.7 ±12.9

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 69.01Rank 32Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 19.68Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 109.14Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350 ±22.6

11288Trident Force

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -37.95Rank 40Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7002风云蹦豆

Provisional

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 43.56Rank 24Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 74.38Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6399, 7594, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6399, 7594, 6487

Auto

17.8 9%

Teleop

109.1 55%

Endgame

72.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11288, 7002, 10526

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11288, 7002, 10526

Auto

4.7 6%

Teleop

50.2 68%

Endgame

19.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.8pts

Blue projected score80pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 44–234
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.7Season APEX350

17.8Auto4.7

109.1Teleop50.2

72.3Endgame19.3

49Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	81	29
endgame	13	0
foul	10	25
total	131	68

Result

Final score

131 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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