Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.78 – 267.91

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 88.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.5 ±16.2

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 7.16Rank 22Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 125.8Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 71.82Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.3 ±17.2

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 125.59Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 90.63Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 51.69Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6353, 8810, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6353, 8810, 10131

Auto

29.4 14%

Teleop

120.7 59%

Endgame

53.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8011, 6766, 11319

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8011, 6766, 11319

Auto

50.1 20%

Teleop

141.1 55%

Endgame

63.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.8pts

Blue projected score267.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.1
Score range: 171–302
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 643 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.5Season APEX496.3

29.4Auto50.1

120.7Teleop141.1

53.2Endgame63.5

13Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	33
teleop	196	154
endgame	112	78
foul	15	0
total	378	265

Result

Final score

378 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 88.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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