Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.4 – 0

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.3 ±19.8

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 85.3Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 56.11Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 174.99Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±23.7

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -2.05Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5522Stargazer

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 23.49Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11485Bestarian NextGEN

Provisional

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -23.49Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6940, 11328, 10541

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6940, 11328, 10541

Auto

56.9 18%

Teleop

189.2 60%

Endgame

68.9 22%

Strengths

· 10541 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11352, 5522, 11485

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11352, 5522, 11485

Auto

13.3 0%

Teleop

-33.1 100%

Endgame

-3.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score316.4pts

Blue projected score-2.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 316.4
Score range: -34–350
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.3Season APEX228.9

56.9Auto13.3

189.2Teleop-33.1

68.9Endgame-3.3

70Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	13
teleop	159	32
endgame	60	29
foul	15	15
total	314	89

Result

Final score

314 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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