Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.31 – 122.62

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±19.3

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 70.91Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX -7.92Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 68.32Rank 45Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±20.3

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 97.76Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11256Satellites

Provisional

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 5.68Rank 37Record 3-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 19.18Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6706, 6494, 10120

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6706, 6494, 10120

Auto

20.0 16%

Teleop

76.9 62%

Endgame

26.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5449, 11256, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5449, 11256, 8806

Auto

26.0 19%

Teleop

70.1 51%

Endgame

42.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score122.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.7
Score range: 89–165
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX336.4

20Auto26

76.9Teleop70.1

26.6Endgame42.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	25
teleop	160	80
endgame	55	46
foul	0	0
total	247	151

Result

Final score

247 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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