Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.49 – 83.25

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.2 ±20.1

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX 6.45Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 95Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 54.04Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±20.3

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 14.89Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 85.92Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX -17.56Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10558, 6986, 11118

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10558, 6986, 11118

Auto

17.7 14%

Teleop

77.6 59%

Endgame

35.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6433, 6487, 6414

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6433, 6487, 6414

Auto

13.5 14%

Teleop

68.2 70%

Endgame

15.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 49–189
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.2Season APEX353.4

17.7Auto13.5

77.6Teleop68.2

35.5Endgame15.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	82	117
endgame	49	56
foul	5	0
total	154	204

Result

Final score

154 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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