Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.96 – 192.49

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 153.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.9 ±18.7

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 68.86Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 141.13Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX -10.03Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±24.2

6394MITO

Provisional

Season APEX 96Event APEX 71.75Rank 43Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 53.83Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 66.91Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8810, 10541, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8810, 10541, 7594

Auto

34.5 18%

Teleop

92.2 49%

Endgame

61.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6394, 9421, 10000

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6394, 9421, 10000

Auto

13.2 7%

Teleop

114.3 60%

Endgame

64.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200pts

Blue projected score192.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 158–234
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 190.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.9Season APEX294.4

34.5Auto13.2

92.2Teleop114.3

61Endgame64.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	16
teleop	219	29
endgame	88	14
foul	0	5
total	378	64

Result

Final score

378 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 153.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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