Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.56 – 101.37

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±12.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 67.3Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX -3.23Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 27.49Rank 32Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±21.7

6414Voyager

Provisional

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 17.07Rank 36Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7738Helion

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 5.1Rank 50Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 79.2Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 8806, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 8806, 6399

Auto

38.1 41%

Teleop

40.8 44%

Endgame

14.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6414, 7738, 6940

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6414, 7738, 6940

Auto

18.9 19%

Teleop

62.5 64%

Endgame

15.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.6pts

Blue projected score101.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 58–135
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 188.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.3Season APEX316.6

38.1Auto18.9

40.8Teleop62.5

14.1Endgame15.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	42
teleop	124	47
endgame	73	13
foul	0	0
total	227	102

Result

Final score

227 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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