Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.5 – 105.42

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.6 ±20.7

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 14.51Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 33.45Rank 25Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11288Trident Force

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -38.46Rank 40Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.5 ±24.2

11319Polaris

Provisional

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 42Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10214Team Doritos

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 64.37Rank 48Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11352Flying Tiger

Provisional

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -0.95Rank 49Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6433, 10479, 11288

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6433, 10479, 11288

Auto

19.2 0%

Teleop

-8.4 57%

Endgame

-25.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11319, 10214, 11352

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11319, 10214, 11352

Auto

44.3 40%

Teleop

52.2 47%

Endgame

14.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score9.5pts

Blue projected score105.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.9
Score range: -25–140
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.6Season APEX245.5

19.2Auto44.3

-8.4Teleop52.2

-25.6Endgame14.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	6
teleop	74	3
endgame	18	0
foul	5	75
total	97	84

Result

Final score

97 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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