Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.11 – 98.3

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 172.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.6 ±19.5

10016Absolute Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 110Event APEX 4.2Rank 34Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 53.93Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 19.98Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±22

10558Forté

Provisional

Season APEX 87.6Event APEX 23.43Rank 44Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6304EAGLE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 5.44Rank 20Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 69.43Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10016, 9597, 6706

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10016, 9597, 6706

Auto

17.0 23%

Teleop

43.2 58%

Endgame

14.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10558, 6304, 10541

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10558, 6304, 10541

Auto

32.4 40%

Teleop

37.0 45%

Endgame

12.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score98.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.2
Score range: 44–132
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 190.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.6Season APEX376.1

17Auto32.4

43.2Teleop37

14.4Endgame12.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	25
teleop	154	133
endgame	48	82
foul	5	45
total	237	285

Result

Final score

237 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 172.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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