Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.83 – 96.41

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.3 ±18

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 22.74Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 38.3Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11485Bestarian NextGEN

Provisional

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 19.79Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±20.7

9421Nexus

Provisional

Season APEX 103.1Event APEX 2.28Rank 42Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 47.28Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 46.85Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11118, 8011, 11485

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11118, 8011, 11485

Auto

19.8 27%

Teleop

37.7 52%

Endgame

15.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9421, 9635, 5449

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9421, 9635, 5449

Auto

23.7 25%

Teleop

57.4 61%

Endgame

12.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.8pts

Blue projected score96.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 47–130
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.3Season APEX520.2

19.8Auto23.7

37.7Teleop57.4

15.5Endgame12.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	59
teleop	60	152
endgame	59	62
foul	0	0
total	167	273

Result

Final score

167 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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