Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.75 – 80.01

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 125.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±18.5

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 3.14Rank 46Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 17.47Rank 45Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10000Neutron Star

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 57.14Rank 38Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±14.5

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 17.47Rank 22Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 26.08Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 36.46Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5515, 10120, 10000

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 10120, 10000

Auto

12.8 17%

Teleop

49.6 66%

Endgame

13.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6353, 6487, 6940

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6353, 6487, 6940

Auto

17.7 26%

Teleop

34.0 50%

Endgame

16.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.8pts

Blue projected score80pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.3
Score range: 45–113
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.9Season APEX532.1

12.8Auto17.7

49.6Teleop34

13.1Endgame16.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	44
teleop	74	148
endgame	46	68
foul	10	0
total	148	260

Result

Final score

148 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 125.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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