Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.35 – 114.15

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 130.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.9 ±23.2

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 71.14Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6394MITO

Provisional

Season APEX 96Event APEX 35.07Rank 43Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

5849Joker

Provisional

Season APEX 123.5Event APEX 23.14Rank 41Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.5 ±18

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 46.49Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 32.57Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 35.09Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8810, 6394, 5849

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8810, 6394, 5849

Auto

11.3 10%

Teleop

65.9 61%

Endgame

31.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6986, 11019, 11328

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 11019, 11328

Auto

29.1 26%

Teleop

62.4 56%

Endgame

20.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.4pts

Blue projected score114.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 82–161
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 177.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.9Season APEX495.5

11.3Auto29.1

65.9Teleop62.4

31.7Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	23
teleop	110	242
endgame	60	61
foul	0	0
total	179	326

Result

Final score

179 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 130.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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