Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

484.54 – 366.07

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.4 ±14.9

10526Orcas

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 43.74Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 195.47Rank 2Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 245.33Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 740.4 ±15.8

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 121.85Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6304EAGLE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 93.74Rank 20Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 150.48Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10526, 6941, 8214

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10526, 6941, 8214

Auto

98.6 21%

Teleop

253.0 55%

Endgame

107.8 23%

Strengths

· 8214 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9635, 6304, 9597

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9635, 6304, 9597

Auto

92.7 26%

Teleop

182.4 52%

Endgame

76.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score484.5pts

Blue projected score366.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.5
Score range: 327–524
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 833 vs event baseline 215.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.4Season APEX740.4

98.6Auto92.7

253Teleop182.4

107.8Endgame76.9

6Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	63
teleop	275	150
endgame	147	82
foul	20	5
total	533	300

Result

Final score

533 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Match videos

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