Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

502.14 – 542.31

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

831 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 179.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 167.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 167.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 167.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 180.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 180.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 180.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

108.5 22%

Teleop

266.8 54%

Endgame

117.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 4946, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.3 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337

Auto

96.4 18%

Teleop

264.5 49%

Endgame

179.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score502.1pts

Blue projected score542.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 389–655
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1344 vs event baseline 629.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX839.6

108.5Auto96.4

266.8Teleop264.5

117.7Endgame179.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	168	131
teleop	480	299
endgame	178	83
foul	5	0
total	831	513

Result

Final score

831 – 513

Prediction missed · off by 179.1 pts

Match videos

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