Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
614.58 – 721.71
21%79%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
627 – 713
Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9
Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 204.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 356Event APEX 204.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 204.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 240.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 240.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 240.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8613, 6800, 254
66
/ 100 compatProjected
614.6 pts
~0.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 8613, 6800, 254
Auto
161.1 26%
Teleop
373.7 61%
Endgame
79.7 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4065, 4414, 1323
75
/ 100 compatProjected
721.7 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323
Auto
172.3 24%
Teleop
415.7 58%
Endgame
133.7 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.48 · Blue 1.64
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score614.6pts
Blue projected score721.7pts
Red win probability21%
Event bonus sample32alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -107.1
- Score range
- 503–834
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1116Season APEX1072.2
161.1Auto172.3
373.7Teleop415.7
79.7Endgame133.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 194 | 181 |
| teleop | 244 | 301 |
| endgame | 179 | 196 |
| foul | 10 | 35 |
| total | 627 | 713 |
Result
Final score
627 – 713
Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts
Match videos
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