Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

570 – 529.71

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

707 – 470

Prediction correct · off by 98.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 190Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 190Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 190Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 176.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 176.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 176.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

570 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 2910, 2046

Auto

81.4 15%

Teleop

259.7 47%

Endgame

211.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

529.7 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

81.4 16%

Teleop

285.4 56%

Endgame

145.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.31 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score570pts

Blue projected score529.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.3
Score range: 417–683
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 1177 vs event baseline 629.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

957.2Season APEX1020

81.4Auto81.4

259.7Teleop285.4

211.7Endgame145.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	140
teleop	366	245
endgame	246	85
foul	0	0
total	707	470

Result

Final score

707 – 470

Prediction correct · off by 98.4 pts

Match videos

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