Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
609.24 – 533.04
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
688 – 691
Prediction missed · off by 118.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 378Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4915, 2481, 1678
68
/ 100 compatProjected
609.2 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678
Auto
112.1 19%
Teleop
329.1 55%
Endgame
161.1 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6324, 4946, 2337
67
/ 100 compatProjected
533 pts
~0.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337
Auto
107.4 20%
Teleop
275.4 52%
Endgame
148.7 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.5 · Blue 0.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score609.2pts
Blue projected score533pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample32alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 76.2
- Score range
- 420–722
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1049.9Season APEX839.6
112.1Auto107.4
329.1Teleop275.4
161.1Endgame148.7
0Consistency213
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 125 | 116 |
| teleop | 363 | 348 |
| endgame | 190 | 227 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 688 | 691 |
Result
Final score
688 – 691
Prediction missed · off by 118.4 pts
Match videos
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