Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

563.37 – 492.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

703 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 123.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

563.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

131.4 24%

Teleop

262.1 47%

Endgame

163.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.5 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

112.1 23%

Teleop

229.4 47%

Endgame

148.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.47 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score563.4pts

Blue projected score492.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.9
Score range: 379–676
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 1302 vs event baseline 627.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

991.5Season APEX1000.3

131.4Auto112.1

262.1Teleop229.4

163.6Endgame148.6

195Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	164	90
teleop	337	292
endgame	192	212
foul	10	5
total	703	599

Result

Final score

703 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 123.1 pts

Match videos

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