Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
669.09 – 533.04
84%16%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
842 – 484
Prediction correct · off by 111 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 223.03Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 223.03Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 223.03Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 177.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4065, 4414, 1323
77
/ 100 compatProjected
669.1 pts
~1.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323
Auto
165.2 25%
Teleop
331.1 51%
Endgame
155.7 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6324, 4946, 2337
67
/ 100 compatProjected
533 pts
~0.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337
Auto
107.4 20%
Teleop
275.4 52%
Endgame
148.7 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.37
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score669.1pts
Blue projected score533pts
Red win probability84%
Event bonus sample32alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 136.1
- Score range
- 420–782
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1072.2Season APEX839.6
165.2Auto107.4
331.1Teleop275.4
155.7Endgame148.7
189Consistency213
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 201 | 93 |
| teleop | 485 | 225 |
| endgame | 156 | 161 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 842 | 484 |
Result
Final score
842 – 484
Prediction correct · off by 111 pts
Match videos
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