Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

674.88 – 609.24

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

717 – 632

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 224.96Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 224.96Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 224.96Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 203.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 6800, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

674.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 254

Auto

172.3 26%

Teleop

328.8 49%

Endgame

170.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4915, 2481, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

609.2 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678

Auto

112.1 19%

Teleop

329.1 55%

Endgame

161.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.45 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score674.9pts

Blue projected score609.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 496–788
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1349 vs event baseline 627.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1116Season APEX1049.9

172.3Auto112.1

328.8Teleop329.1

170.2Endgame161.1

252Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	188	118
teleop	436	350
endgame	93	159
foul	0	5
total	717	632

Result

Final score

717 – 632

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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