Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

627.87 – 492.45

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

618 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 209.29Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 209.29Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 209.29Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 164.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

627.9 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

145.4 23%

Teleop

340.4 55%

Endgame

134.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.5 pts

~0.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

112.1 23%

Teleop

229.4 47%

Endgame

148.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score627.9pts

Blue projected score492.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.4
Score range: 379–741
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1086 vs event baseline 627.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX1000.3

145.4Auto112.1

340.4Teleop229.4

134.3Endgame148.6

183Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	153
teleop	333	205
endgame	170	110
foul	20	0
total	618	468

Result

Final score

618 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Match videos

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